Mobile advertising, overhyped?

I get the hype: more people using smartphones and connected devices, huge potential of creating targeted campaigns leveraging user preferences and location. Years of experimenting, some growth, but a very small share of advertising. Will it ever gain traction?

All sorts of players have tried to compete along the mobile advertising value chain. Many innovations happened, lots of interesting stuff out there, but I feel its to intrusive to work.

Traditionally, Telecom players sought to monetize this channel through simple communication (text messaging, multimedia messaging, etc). The idea was to control a larger chunk of the value chain and use advertising as an alternate source of revenues to combat falling voice revenues. Measured against that goal, i would say operators have failed miserably. As it stands today, revenues are low and operators have lost the head-start as the focus shifts more towards mobile apps/ mobile web. One interesting business model out of all this is Blyk, an operator that provides its customers with free minutes and messages in exchange for opting in to mobile advertising.

The latest bets i would say are the mobile web and mobile applications. Google acquired admob in 2009 (for $750 million) which, complemented by its Android platform, is able to bring lots of value to marketers. Apple followed by acquiring Quattro wireless last year to launch its iAds network, again lots of synergies and potential there.

I'm sure both companies will revolutionize the mobile-ad space in terms of providing richer forms of media for marketers. However, will there be enough scale given how people use their mobile devices. I might be mistaken here, but i feel mobile devices are geared more towards efficiency and getting things done rather than fiddling with some advertisements.

When you browse the web, shoot an email or download an app on your mobile phone, you are often in a hurry to get something done. In my opinion, it is time-limit that will eventually cap mobile advertising, beyond which penetration will just flatten.

This is strictly my reading of the situation. Are the mobile ad players betting on the mobile becoming a 1st/ 2nd screen type of device where you would spend more time there? Are the target segments a diff category of users that are willing to opt-in to ads?