The Death of Facebook

One of my favorite dot-com implosions was Third Voice, which was named one of 1999's hottest companies by Red Herring magazine. It was basically a browser plug-in which allowed users to place comments on any website. With no mechanism through which comments could be vetted, the result was basically "digital graffiti". Salon commented:

The AOL home page boasts a chorus of notes with the common sentiment that "AOL Sux!" And at Netscape's front door you'll find notes like that of "MrDwight," who feels that Third Voice is the perfect forum to tell you that "Jesus is the only Eternal Life Insurance Policy that gives you true Peace on Earth, Righteousness in your thinking, and Joy in your attitude."

What lessons can we learn here? One is that the vast majority of user-generated content is not very compelling, to say to least. This is less of a problem for sites like YouTube, which enjoy massive amounts of traffic and determine what content is worthwhile using measures of popularity. But for sites like Facebook, where posted information is only relevant to a handful of people, the effect may be fatal. The Economist notes:

Unlike other networks, social networks lose value once they go beyond a certain size. “The value of a social network is defined not only by who's on it, but by who's excluded,” says Paul Saffo, a Silicon Valley forecaster. Already, social networks such as “aSmallWorld”, an exclusive site for the rich and famous, are proliferating. Such networks recognise that people want to hobnob with a chosen few, not to be spammed by random friend-requests. This suggests that the future of social networking will not be one big social graph but instead myriad small communities on the internet to replicate the millions that exist offline.

I met a friend for coffee today, and she complained that her extended family keeps pestering her with unwanted messages and invitations on Facebook. I'm betting she will quit the site within a year or two. Whether this becomes a real trend depends on how well Facebook can divine and respect the preferences of its users. The Burger King "Whopper Sacrifice" (thanks Kelly) may just mark the beginning of the end.