Is mobile search a threat to Google’s dominance?

Mobile web is shifting towards apps

The eMarketer recent article titled “US Mobile Ad Dollars Shift to Search Apps” brings an interesting view and rises several questions about the future of Google in the mobile world.

As mobile is becoming more and more important in the digital marketing world (estimates that it will increase from 12.9% in 2012 to 85.9% of the US digital search marketing) the market and consumers start to adapt and respond to new trends. The size of the screen was the first challenge to companies like Google, but changes in user trends arising seem to be the big challenge.

App usage is substituting the traditional browser search, and that leads to a shift in the ad revenues. According to flurry.com, about 86% of time spent on mobile devices is spent inside applications.

But the market is still adapting, and there is currently a mismatch between Ad Spent and Time spent, according to Flurry, Google represents only 18% of time spent but a total of 49% of ad spent, while other Apps account for 65% of time and only 33% of ad spent.

A closer look on the sub-segment of Search ad revenues

eMarketer expects that the increasing time spend in Apps will lead to a decrease in Google’s market share of mobile search ad spending, from about 82.8% in 2012 to 64.2% in 2016. Offsetting Google’s decrease, a substantial growth is expected in the “long tail” category “other”, expected to represent about 30% of mobile search ad spending in 2016. This category includes several specialized apps, such as travel/flights search, ecommerce or “contextual apps” like Shazam.

...and several questions arise

Google's dominance appear to be threatened.

Is Google really "asleep"?

How is Google responding to this threat?

Should we expect to start having more and more Google apps on our smartphones?

Or is Google just moving towards becoming a platform as a service for app developers (Google App Engine)?

How will Google leverage its dominance in our life to compete in this new mobile world?

Sources and additional information:

http://adage.com/article/digital/study-mobile-search-shifting-google-mobile-apps/293560/

http://www.emarketer.com/Article/US-Mobile-Ad-Dollars-Shift-Search-Apps/1010898

http://www.flurry.com/bid/109266/Android-Personalization-Apps-The-Battle-for-App-Content-and-Service-Discovery#.U5MeI3JdUlI

http://www.flurry.com/bid/109749/Apps-Solidify-Leadership-Six-Years-into-the-Mobile-Revolution#.U5Mj83JdUlI