Wednesday, March 04, 2020

The Death of the Agency Model (akin to: The Death of the Ad Network)?

Here's an interesting article recently posted around my network: The Death of the Agency Model; it's the first of its kind that I've seen - though I don't predict it to be the last. I couldn't help but think that this trend is reminiscent of a wave of articles from as early as 2011, all the way through 2015 on The Death of the Advertising Network (just 2 examples below, though there are many more out there):

Hi-lights from the death of the Ad Network trend (in fact, most Ad Networks wend out of business by the end of 2016, leaving only a few giants and then some highly specialized/verticalized networks in existence):
  • Other players (ATDs, DSPs, SSPs) emerged as substitutes
  • Lack of transparency (in fee structure, in where ads were displaying)
  • Lack of Trust (resulting from the above)
Interestingly enough, the article which inspired this blog post (again: on "The Death of the Agency Model") cites operational inefficiencies as the key issue plaguing Agencies today - which certainly do abound. However, as I hinted above, I think that's just one issue amidst some more systemic problems that Agencies are increasingly facing today, especially when it comes to programmatic advertising. First, I see a similarity in lack of transparency (and thus, potential trust) when it comes to fees and how media budget it being spent. And, even as technology emerges to improve operational efficiency... who's to say that brands won't just use these technologies directly? The trend of In-Housing (whereby brands hire marketers in-house vs. outsourcing advertising/marketing to Agency teams) has been in the media quite a bit over the past 2-3 years (For just a few examples: IAB Paper from early 2018, a late 2018 Article, 2019 Article). Per a recent article about The Trade Desk (one of those tech platforms originally built for Agencies to use), this trend is going strong! And only those tech players - such as The Trade Desk - who are able to capitalize on this trend will survive.

Sounds a LOT to me like what happened to the Ad Network model throughout the course of the early to mid 2010's, whereby networks literally got disintermediated as Agencies/Brands and publishers increasingly looked toward tech-based substitutes to connect more directly! So - does this mean that we'll see a similar trend of consolidation and shrinkage in the number of Agencies out there? I'd bet on that. 

Note however, that I don't think Agencies will disappear altogether, as Networks certainly did not. But the point is: It's a tough time to be an Agency, and I'd argue that margin compression will rise as a push for transparency continues. Only those agencies that choose a path of transparency in fees and how budgets are spent (which they can only do if operations are efficient) will differentiate above the rest and survive.

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