What’s been buzzing in my mind since last week’s guest
speaker coupled with our lecture on the rise of mobile starting with the iPhone
is the importance of hardware to drive success of existing software, or rather,
the inter-operation of hardware and software. Apple’s meteoric rise with the
iPhone was then made sticky with the advent of the app store where developers could
find plenty of customers. This in turn drawing out more developers, increasing
quality that attracted customers, so on and so on in a virtuous cycle that
continues today.
Considering Google’s competitive position, it’s interesting
how the Google phone, Google Glass, etc. are means to keep their browser front
and center. Apple users by default use Safari and Amazon can promote their own
browser through Alexa, which seems primed
to be a key search engine channel going forward (pun intended).
What recalled this issue is the following article on Tesla’s
financial woes, where Tesla’s bond investors are increasingly looking for
insurance against loss.
Telsa is an example of crossing this hardware-software
bridge, resulting in great technology, though their growth strategy recalls
another issue that seems to plague tech upstarts in general – that of highly
leveraging volatile operations for rapid growth.
In reading about Amazon’s early days, Amazon seemed largely
in the right place at the right time, with raising financing through equity and
then later through debt just before the dot-com crisis took hold, providing for
particularly cheap capital. They then were able to fund their balance sheet
further through some key partnerships post the tech bubble burst, though given
they started financing just a bit further down the road, it’s easily possible
to envision an alternative history where Amazon might not be the behemoth we
know today.
Highlighting of this approach to value creation was when,
during Amazon’s early growth, they shipped Harry Potter books at a loss to gain
new loyal customers. He seemed to suggest traditional bottom line protection, at
the time and given their growth goals, was amateurish.
It seems to have worked for them, gaining market share and now showing profits,
even if thin. The likes of Tesla and Netflix seem to be a different story, with
rising debt levels that isn’t translating to profitability in what seems fast
enough to avoid cataclysm. I liken these budding industries to the inception of
the airline industry – a great, revolutionary technology, though not
necessarily from an investment perspective, at least not early on. For both
these latter firms it seems equally likely to me that traditional media and car
manufacturers are bound to also play in the space.
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