Just wanted to bounce on the emarketer article which commented on the "surprising" decline in online advertising in Q1 2009.
eMarketer analyst David Hallerman was quoted saying "in some ways the decline further reinforces how online ad spending is a central part of the mainstream. As other media are experiencing even greater ad spending declines, the Internet cannot resist larger economic forces"
May be so. But then, why was online spending affected so late in the cycle? possibly because it is cheaper and can its efficiency is easier to track, as is implied in the article.
In a context of aggressive cost cutting, the "cheap" argument seems the more plausible to me.
Then the question becomes: when will online ad spending bounce back? will it jump right back when signs of an economic recovery become more tangible, or will it lag behind, just like it lagged behind in declining during the downturn?
In my opinion the answer will determine whether the eMarketer analyst was correct. If it jumps right back, it will indicate indeed that online advertising has become an essential part of the mix for most companies. But if it is still considered as an affordable but still a bit marginal tool, that executives do not yet completely grasp, it will lag behind and jump back only after traditional media advertising starts growing again.
Time will tell!
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