Google and Facebook have historically captured the vast
majority of overall digital marketing dollars. Google has displayed prolonged
and absolute dominance within search ad revenue specifically, however this supremacy
is on the decline due to competitors like Apple, Amazon and Pinterest growing in
relevance and eating away at Google’s market share.
Two macro trends that are affecting Google’s share of search
spending are overall market growth and a substantial shift from desktop to
mobile. The overall size of the search market is expanding as new sources of
search come online. Google will struggle to capture all of these growth areas.
Google primarily stands alone in desktop search, but the mobile search market
is much more crowded with competition and therefore it will be difficult to
capture all the growth.
The biggest area for concern is in retail. Consumers are
more likely to search for products directly on Amazon’s website or through
Alexa (voice search category) than through Google search.
I don’t find it surprising that Google’s long time dominance
in search is finally being challenged by the likes of Amazon. Search ad revenue
is a massive market and it was inevitable that other entrants would start to
capture market share. Amazon is well positioned on both desktop (amazon.com)
and voice (Alexa) and Apple also retains a stronghold in voice (Siri). It is particularly
interesting to read this article alongside of the book “The Search: How Google and Its Rivals Rewrote the Rules of
Business and Transformed Our Culture” by John Battelle, which details the early
landscape of search in 2005. I don’t think even John could have forecasted
these changes and advancements into mobile and voice.
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