Network suits spend weeks, if not months, agonizing over which shows will go where on their fall schedules. But by 2010, according to the consulting firm the Yankee Group, 48 million American homes will have DVRs, which allow viewers to watch shows they've recorded whenever they choose. And then there are options such as online streaming, on-demand viewing and buying episodes via iTunes, all of which have exploded in the past couple of years.
I would argue that the TV lineups still add value for many consumers. In a world of unending choices and an increasing emphasis on information pull, I believe many people will welcome the choices being made for them. Choices can be exhausting. Audiences will thank the big networks for deciding what they are watching on a certain night so they don't have to make the choice themselves. I also think when it comes to TV news, people want more of a push model because they still value the aggregation that news programs do for them. It'll be interesting to see who becomes the most trusted aggregator in online video in a Web 2.0 world (or should I say TV 2.0)?
Additionally, for those of us who are addicted to certain shows, we can appreciate the excitement around a show's original airtime. I know I personally will still be in front of the TV watching American Idol every Tuesday night at 8 pm next year (or catching it on my DVR as soon as I can that night).
I would say, however, that TV may lose audiences as our entertainment and news options expand into the unimaginable. This is a good thing for advertisers because they are realizing new advertising channels that provide a better ROI (but that is a whole other conversation - maybe I'll cover that in my next post). Overall, I think these trends are a big win for most of the players involved, including consumers, advertisers and content creators. TV networks have the most to lose here. The ones battle that is hard to predict is whether traditional networks will take the lead in online video or whether an internet company will do the honors.
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