http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2014/06/a-dangerous-question-does-internet-advertising-work-at-all/372704/
Derek Thompson of The Atlantic dissects the challenges online advertisers face - from the once controlled ad environment of ten years ago to the now chaotic digital landscape where nobody can possibly weight each idiosyncratic variable that impacts a purchase decision.
For example, Facebook studies show low click rates on adds, but their (internal) studies showed that purchase intent went up. Other variables can't possibly be accounted for in an algorithmically driven FB ad. For example, I was engaging with brand X anyway with plans to buy it. FB's ad had no impact on something I was going to eventually buy anyway.
The other big issue for advertisers to contend with is how much saturated commentary / reviews impact purchasing habits. If I see two stars next to a product I thought I would love, I am very discouraged from buying it. No great ad will replace that.
Bottom line, the internet is undeniably powerful and there is some measurability, but it still remains the wild wild west and human behavior remains one of the hardest things to track- even with the trace of a mouse click.
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