Thursday, March 03, 2016

Data can prevent Trump from becoming the Republican Nominee

There is no question, Donald J. Trump is leading the Republican race for the 2016 presidential nomination, and it seems there is nothing anyone can say or do to stop him.

Being somewhat confused by the whole American election process, I decided to do some research in order to weigh in all options.  The good news, for those like me who find  Trump unsuitable to be president, is that there is still a chance to get him out of the race since none of the Super Tuesday states are winner-take-all.

But what does that mean?  In order for Trump to guarantee his nomination, he needs to secure a total of 1,237 delegates out of 1,777.   So far he has won 319 out of 688.   There are still 1,089 delegates up for grabs!  Which means that Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio (226 and 110 delegates respectively) have justification to stay in the race longer.   

But for them to get ahead or to at least guarantee Mr. Trump doesn’t get the number of delegates he needs, they must start making a better use of their budgets.  And that is where data comes into play.

As Issie Lapowsky, writer for Wired.com, explains in her article “Data, Not Dirt, Is the GOP’s Last Defense Against Trump”, there are delegate-rich states that will award a certain number of delegates in every congressional district of the state.  Some districts have a bigger republican turnout than others, but if Trump contenders focus on the smaller districts, “campaigns stand to pick up the same number of delegates with much less effort,” Issie states.  Alex Lundry, former data guru of Jeb Bush’s campaign, explains “You can get three delegates by talking to 8,000 Republicans, or you can get three by talking to 116,000 Republicans”.


So by the smart use of data, understanding their voters, and maximizing the use of digital advertising in those sates and districts that provide a higher return of investment, Rubio and Cruz can still convert those “customers” to voters and steal them away from Trump maintaining themselves in the race long enough before the Republican convention.

If by summer, when the convention takes place, Mr. Trump hasn’t been able to secure the 1,237 delegates required to win the Republican Presidential Nomination, then all the delegates are “reshuffled” and the nomination becomes available for any of the remaining candidates.


So let's pray that Cruz and Rubio’s campaign managers, and team members, are smart enough to crack the code soon that will lead them to overthrown, the self proclaimed, king of the world, Mr. Donald J. Trump.

No comments: