Do Political Ads Work as Well as We Think They Do?

Do Political Ads Work as Well as We Think They Do?

The 2020 presidential election season shattered records for political ad spending. From April 9^th 2020 to November 4^th, it is estimated that Democrats and Republicans combined spent over $1.7 billion on media ad buys. These ads, purchased directly by candidates and their PACs, focused primarily on broadcast TV, digital and cable tv. This enormous ad spend has a simple goal. Gain votes for either Joe Biden or Donald Trump. Despite this enormous spend, it is hard to know if it actually made an impact. For example, Mike Bloomberg estimated that $100 million was needed in ad spend to flip FL in favor of Biden. He spent the money, but the margin for Trump only increased vs. 2016. Additionally, Biden and his supporters outspent Trump and his by $276 million. Prior to knowing the outcome, one would infer that with a spending gap this large, the election would not have come down to only thousands of votes across a few states. Nevertheless, the biggest spenders did win. So how should we think about this moving forward? Political advertising is clearly different from traditional marketing. You can infer that the target audience is more loyal to a political candidate than a brand of beer, so traditional advertising is likely not as effective. At least through advertising, the notion that you can ‘buy votes’, does not seem to be happening. I don’t expect these spending number to decline anytime soon, but a renewed focus on high impact impressions such as community groups and events may prove to be the best way to recruit voters to a cause.