Basically, the article highlights a recent study by ZenithOptimedia, which among other things, has cut its forecast of overall global at spend to 3.8% this year, down from the 4.3% it was previously expecting. The Internet channel is taking share from all other channels, except TV, which is still holding strong (chart below):
The article then goes on to state that within Internet advertising, Display Advertising is expected to increase at 20% year-over-year for the next few years, while paid search is only increasing at 14%. Here's the Internet chart:
I have a couple issues with this article. For starters, 14% is slower than 20%, but it's still quite a clip, and in terms of absolute dollars, it's actually much closer. So basically, all this article is saying is that because paid search is starting from a larger base, its growth rate is slower. Furthermore, the title of this article is "Why Google Doesn't Own the Next Chapter In Web Ads," but at no point does the article actually give concrete reasons. It simply takes ZenithOptimedia's forecasts as the gospel truth and concludes that Google, lacking the dominance it enjoys in paid search, will start to see more pressure from Facebook, Yahoo, and AOL. Even if I assume the projections call for display advertising to meaningfully cut paid search's lead in ad spend, I don't know why this would happen. Personally, I find Facebook ads and almost all display advertising pretty worthless. So will ad spend be thrown at display because of increased inventory or will there actually be a demand for this increase? Would love other thoughts on this as I recognize I'm not an expert on display vs. search...
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